Budget experts say chances have increased that Washington will jeopardize government funding and borrowing in coming months.
NEW YORK (CNNMoney) Budget experts are worried: The chances of a government shutdown and a harrowing ride to raising the debt limit have gone up in the past few weeks.That's due in part to a fractured Republican Party in the House and perceptions that President Obama is more vulnerable or unpredictable in the wake of the Syria debate.
"We continue to believe disaster will be avoided across each of these issues, but the risk of negative outcomes has increased," Sean West, U.S. policy director for the Eurasia Group, said in a research note Thursday.
Congress, of course, had a full agenda and a tight schedule before Syria took center stage. It must agree to spending levels for fiscal year 2014 -- or at least a short term extension of funding past Oct. 1, the first day of the fiscal year.
If it fails to do so, non-essential parts of the federal government would shut down.
It also must approve a debt ceiling increase by mid-October. If it doesn't, an independent think tank now estimates that the Treasury Department would not have enough cash coming in to pay all the country's bills in full sometime between Oct. 18 and Nov. 5. After the so-called "X" date, barring a higher debt ceiling, the country would default on some of its obligations.
In both cases, many conservatives in the House want to make the defunding or delay of Obamacare a condition for their support to fund the government and raise the debt limit. That's a non-starter for Democrats and President Obama. What's more the administration has insisted it won't negotiate over the raising the debt limit.
And, of course, there's the perennial disagreement over spending levels between the Republicans and Democrats, an old argument made much more complicated by the existence of the much-maligned sequester.
When it comes to the deals that will be cut to assure approval of funding and a higher debt limit, budget experts aren't expecting much. "Big- and medium-term deals don't seem attainable now," said Robert Greenstein, executive director of the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, at a National Journal event Thursday
William Hoagland, senior vice president of the Bipartisan Policy Center, also is not holding his breath. "I've given up on grand bargains."
Funding the government and raising the count! ry's legal borrowing limit, of course, are among the legislature's most basic functions.
And yet, in recent years, both efforts have been stymied by political demands and brinksmanship.
"It's extraordinary how dysfunctional our system has become and how casually we accept it," said Rudolph Penner, a former director of the Congressional Budget Office speaking at the same National Journal event.
West and others who joined Greenstein, Hoagland and Penner think a short-term funding bill is likely to get through. But beyond that is anyone's guess.
Republican Sen. Orrin Hatch, a keynote speaker at the event, was asked whether he thought there was a chance for a Christmastime crisis. "It's very possible," he said. 
Getty Images From birth, we're raised thinking mommy and daddy know best. They have our best interests in mind when they scare away tattooed teenage boys, keep the liquor under lock and key, and set our curfews earlier than those of all our other friends. Unfortunately, when it comes to money, mommy and daddy might be leading you astray. Financial literacy rates in the Millennial generation are abysmal. This year the Treasury Department and Department of Education tested the financial literacy of 84,000 high schoolers, who scored an average of 69 percent. With little to no financial literacy taught in our education system, children have no choice but to learn from dear old Mom and Dad. But if Mom and Dad were never taught -- or never bothered to learn -- how to appropriately handle money, they sure aren't the ones who should be giving financial advice. If you've ever heard your parents say, "Don't get a credit card," they were wrong. Credit cards are one of the easiest ways to build your credit score. Granted, establishing new credit only makes up 10 percent of your score, but if you aren't paying off loans yet, it might be the only way for you to establish a line of credit. Length of credit history makes up 15 percent of your score, so the longer you've had a "healthy" history, the higher your score will typically be. Parents are often reluctant to give their college-age children access to plastic, but if you know how to treat your card right, it'll pay off. When you graduate and start looking for an apartment, a respectable credit score is important to your landlord, while a lack of one can prevent you from signing a lease. If you've ever heard your parents say, "Keep a monthly balance on your credit card," they were wrong. Somehow, parents heard a rumor that keeping a monthly balance on your credit card will help your credit score. They spout some nonsense about how paying the minimum shows responsibility and increases your score. False. Carrying a balance does nothing to improve your score and instead costs you more money because you're accumulating interest on the balance. Instead, pay off your credit card in full each month (which means not charging more to the card than you know you can afford). If you've ever heard your parents say, "X,Y or Z college is worth the student loan debt," they were wrong. Millennials are drowning in student loan debt. As a generation, our debt is so horrific it's predicted to delay our retirement age until 73. For many millennials, it's too late to turn back now; the debt has already been accumulated. The only hope is to diligently, or quickly, pay down debt, and simultaneously start figuring out how to save for retirement from the moment you get your first paycheck. The other option is to start a side hustle and increase your influx of cash. For the younger millennials and Generation Z, there's still hope. When considering college, apply to every scholarship you qualify for. Sometimes your GPA doesn't matter as much as your height or your ability to call ducks. It's a good idea to set your pride aside during your college-decision-making process and really evaluate whether the ROI of your major at X, Y or Z school is worth tens of thousands of dollars in debt. If not, consider state schools, smaller liberal-arts colleges, or simply choosing the college that offered you the best financial package. If you've ever heard your parents say, "Don't invest in the stock market; it's just gambling," they were wrong. Yes, 2008 was a tough year, and the market took a tumble. Boomers lost money and some saw their retirement accounts take a hit. Unfortunately, this led to the millennial generation developing a great mistrust of the stock market. While we might be reluctant to get in bed with the stock market, it's certainly still willing to love us. The greatest advantage for an investor is time, and time is exactly what 20- to 30-year-olds possess. If you're not quite ready for index funds, mutual funds or buying individual stocks, you should at least contribute to your company-matched 401(k)s or open a Roth or Traditional IRA. If you've ever heard your parents say, "Have babies," they were wrong. Starting a family is certainly a personal choice, but not one you should be making based on parental pressure. Raising a child is a tremendous financial commitment. In 2012, it cost middle-income parents $286,860 to raise a child from birth to age 17. If you're willing to pay for college in full, then you can tack on an extra $100,000 or more. For many millennials stuck in the red, starting a family could complicate an already stressful financial situation. Parents mean well, but sometimes their advice comes from a negative personal experience or a lack of knowledge. Instead of always trusting their financial advice, be sure to educate yourself and check against credible sources.
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Alamy Modesty has never been Chick-fil-A's strong suit. This is, after all, the chain that perpetually brags about inventing the chicken sandwich. Its outspoken CEO also isn't shy about letting folks know how he feels about traditional marriage or why his restaurants aren't open for business on Sundays. However, the quick-service chain is taking a surprisingly secretive approach to its efforts to improve its nutrition profile. In what Chick-fil-A is calling "stealth health," it's quietly making its food better for consumers without telling them. "If customers ask, we'll tell them," Chick-fil-A senior nutrition consultant Jodie Worrell tells Nation's Restaurant News. "But it's almost like you're forcing them to notice a change if you tell them." The chain has been working on eliminating artificial food dyes, high-fructose corn syrup, and some preservatives. It just doesn't want to shout it from the rooftops until it knows that customers can't taste the difference. "We didn't necessarily want the customer to know we've tweaked their favorite product," Worrell explains. Taking Back Sunday Most chains are quick to toot their own horns when they eliminate trans fats or add healthier kids-meal options to the menu. Burger King (BKW) has been actively marketing its new crinkle-cut Satisfries as having 40 percent less fat and 30 percent fewer calories than its larger burger rival's french fries. Chick-fil-A may eventually get to crowing about its changes, but for now, it's quietly communicating with its harshest critics. FoodBabe.com blogger Vani Hari didn't pull any punches in calling out Chick-fil-A two years ago, when she suggested it should consider changing its name to Chemical-Fil-A. The chain reached out to her, inviting her out to see the progress that the chain is doing to improve the nutritional quality of its menu. She did, naturally blogging about it earlier this month. Let's go over some of the changes that Chick-fil-A has confirmed to Hari: Chick-fil-A's signature chicken soup will roll out later this month with less salt and the elimination of an artificial yellow dye. High-fructose corn syrup and artificial dyes are being eliminated in dipping sauces and salad dressings by early 2014. Chick-fil-A is testing a peanut frying oil that doesn't contain TBHQ -- an ingredient derived from butane that Hari has been critical about in the past. The chain is also expanding a test with a reformulated sandwich bun that is free of preservatives. Chick-fil-A has a lot going on, but it still doesn't want to boast. The Cow Is a Reluctant Mascot Chick-fil-A isn't afraid of controversy. CEO Dan Cathy -- the son of the chain's founder -- made waves last year for his outspoken opinions against same-sex marriage. Naturally, it proved polarizing, with some activist groups calling for boycotts of the 1,700-unit chain. The menu critiques predate the controversy. This isn't a political campaign to get Chick-fil-A to improve its menu. It also needs to be said that Hari still isn't satisfied. Her top request -- a call for Chick-fil-A to back sustainable chicken breeders that don't use antibiotics or GMO feed and provide better habitats -- remains unmet. She's also still waiting for Chick-fil-A to address the use of MSG in its sandwiches. Then again, it's not as if most restaurant chains have followed the lead of Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) and its "food with integrity" philosophy. The dining industry is still trying to find the balance between humanely raised livestock and what customers are willing to pay. And, in the case of a more health conscious Chick-fil-A the balance between better nutrition and the recipes that make its fans want to eat more chicken.
Since 2000, this "dumb" strategy has beaten the stock market by an average of 9% a year – only underperforming the market twice. This strategy has delivered "crazy good" performance over the very long term as well... If you'd followed this strategy starting in 1927, you'd have turned $10,000 into $421,203,905 by 2009. (Yes, that's $421 million.) And since 1965, the numbers are just as good... Stocks in general have returned 11% a year. But this "dumb" strategy has returned 15.7% since 1965. (These numbers are both from the book What Works On Wall Street.) Over any five-year period, this strategy nearly ALWAYS beats the markets... Except for a microscopic blip of underperformance around the year 2000, this strategy never had a five-year period of underperforming the stock market in the last half-century. (Again, this is from What Works On Wall Street.) Strategies like this one – what I call "dumb" – are my favorite... I call them "dumb," but what I really mean is "simple." I love a strategy that makes sense intuitively... that doesn't require complicated formulas... and that has worked for decades. So far in 2013, this strategy is winning again... The fund that tracks this strategy is up 15% year-to-date, while the S&P 500 index is up 11%. Based on the current numbers, I see no reason why this "crazy good" performance should stop. In short, the stocks in this strategy are still cheap. The top 20 stocks in this fund are selling for an average of 11.6 times forward earnings... and are yielding 1.6%. That's all good. The strategy is simple. It's known as "stock buybacks." But I like to call them "stealth dividends." The principle is simple... Let's say you own shares of Company ABC... and Company ABC buys back and retires some of its shares... then you end up owning more of Company ABC. You can think of it like a pizza... If you own two slices of a pizza, and the total number of slices changes from 10 to eight, you now own 5% more of the pizza. You used to own 20% of the pizza, and now you own 25%. Keep in mind, we didn't shrink the pizza. And we didn't remove pieces of the pie. It is just now cut with eight slices instead of 10. Lucky you. I call this added 5% of the pie a "stealth dividend." You own an extra 5% of the pie – but you didn't pay extra for it. And you might not have even noticed it happening. If you'd received that as a 5% dividend, you would have noticed... and the government would certainly have taxed you for it. So share buybacks are like "stealth" dividends. You get them... but you don't see them... and the government doesn't tax you on them. Meanwhile, they make you money! The simplest way to trade the buyback strategy is through the PowerShares Buyback Achievers Fund (NYSE: PKW), a recommendation in my True Wealth newsletter. It holds companies that have bought back at least 5% of their shares over the previous 12 months – names like biotech company Amgen, tech giant Oracle, and one of my favorite insurance companies, Loews. My True Wealth subscribers are already up 35% on this idea. But there is more to come... As I showed you, the strategy this fund follows almost always beats the market. In short, owning a handful of companies that are busy buying back their own shares has proven to be a market-trouncing strategy for decades. Based on the current holdings of PKW, I don't see that changing anytime soon. Buybacks are a "dumb" strategy... that has proven to nearly always beat the markets. Shares of PKW are the simplest way to play it. Good investing, Steve 
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